Real Sociedad vs Alaves: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián
The Footlab AI model makes Real Sociedad the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Alaves. The most likely score is 1-1. If Real Sociedad wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,140 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Alaves?
On Elo ratings, Real Sociedad has 2,118 points and Alaves 2,035.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Sociedad vs Alaves
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Sociedad
4-4-2- 24L. Sučić
- 9O. Óskarsson
- 7Barrenetxea
- 18Carlos Soler
- 4Jon Gorrotxategi
- 8Beñat Turrientes
- 6Jon Martín
- 2J. Aramburu
- 19M. Sarr
- 5Zubeldia
- 1Álex Remiro
Alaves
3-5-2- 15L. Boyé
- 11Toni Martínez
- 7Angel Pérez
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 6Guevara
- 21A. Rebbach
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 16V. Koski
- 2N. Valentini
- 1Sivera
Computed on November 9, 2026 at 03:17 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Sociedad have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Alaves have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Levante(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Lillestrom(away) | 6-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 1-6 | La Liga |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Real Sociedad win, 2 draws, 3 Alaves wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Real Sociedad 3-3 Alaves | La Liga |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Alaves 2-3 Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Alaves 1-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Alaves 1-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Real Sociedad 1-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Alaves 1-1 Real Sociedad | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Real Sociedad vs Alaves on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Sociedad score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Alaves score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Alaves | 1.3 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Sociedad sit 5th in La Liga (22 points from 12 matches) and Alaves sit 12th (13 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 22 |
| 12 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 13 |
A question about Real Sociedad vs Alaves?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad vs Alaves?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Sociedad the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Real Sociedad vs Alaves played?
- Real Sociedad vs Alaves is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Reale Arena, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.