Real Madrid III vs Ourense CF: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 3, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Real Madrid III the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Ourense CF. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid III vs Ourense CF?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Real Madrid III (1,852) and Ourense CF (1,907).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid III have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Ourense CF have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Valladolid II(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Estepona(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 10, 2026 | Estepona(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs |
| May 3, 2026 | Conquense(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | SS Reyes(away) | 3-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Lugo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontevedra(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | CF Talavera(away) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 10, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(home) | 2-4 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid III score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ourense CF score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid III | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Ourense CF | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid III vs Ourense CF?
- The Footlab model makes Real Madrid III the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Ourense CF.
- Where and when is Real Madrid III vs Ourense CF played?
- Real Madrid III vs Ourense CF is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 3, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.