Rebordosa vs Alpendorada: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Monte de Azevido, Rebordosa (Paredes)
The Footlab model makes Rebordosa the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Alpendorada. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rebordosa vs Alpendorada?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Rebordosa (1,905) and Alpendorada (1,864).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rebordosa have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Alpendorada have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chaves II(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tirsense(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| May 31, 2026 | Vianense(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 22, 2026 | Leça(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 17, 2026 | Bragança(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Camacha(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Guarda(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Resende(home) | 3-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Salgueiros(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Beira-Mar(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Rebordosa win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Alpendorada win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Alpendorada 1-1 Rebordosa | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Rebordosa 2-0 Alpendorada | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Mar 19, 2023 | Rebordosa 2-1 Alpendorada | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Dec 4, 2022 | Alpendorada 0-3 Rebordosa | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
Last archived meeting: Alpendorada vs Rebordosa on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rebordosa score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Alpendorada score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebordosa | 0.9 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Alpendorada | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rebordosa vs Alpendorada?
- The Footlab model makes Rebordosa the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Alpendorada.
- Where and when is Rebordosa vs Alpendorada played?
- Rebordosa vs Alpendorada is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Monte de Azevido, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.