Where and when is RSD Alcalá vs A Madrid III played?

RSD Alcalá vs A Madrid III is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

RSD Alcalá vs A Madrid III: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val, Alcalá de Henares

RSD Alcalá

A Madrid III

The Footlab model makes RSD Alcalá the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for A Madrid III. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win RSD Alcalá vs A Madrid III?

A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate RSD Alcalá (1,875) and A Madrid III (1,843).

RSD Alcalá win46 %

Draw27 %

A Madrid III win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, RSD Alcalá have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; A Madrid III have 6, 6 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

RSD Alcalá
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 19, 2026	Gimnástica Segoviana(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	CD Coria(home)	1-2	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 26, 2026	Quintanar del Rey(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 19, 2026	Rayo Vallecano II(home)	3-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 12, 2026	Fuenlabrada(away)	2-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

A Madrid III
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Móstoles(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
May 3, 2026	SS Reyes II(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 25, 2026	Racing Madrid(home)	5-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 19, 2026	Las Rozas(away)	5-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 11, 2026	Unión Adarve(home)	3-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

How many goals should we expect?

RSD Alcalá score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; A Madrid III score 2.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
RSD Alcalá	1.5	0.9	6	7/15	9/15
A Madrid III	2.1	1.4	2	12/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	RSD Alcalá	34	14	9	11	42	39	51

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for RSD Alcalá vs A Madrid III?: The Footlab model makes RSD Alcalá the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for A Madrid III.
Where and when is RSD Alcalá vs A Madrid III played?: RSD Alcalá vs A Madrid III is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.