Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 31Kick-off on April 24, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima
The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Machida Zelvia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2,090) and Machida Zelvia (2,116).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Machida Zelvia have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Okinawa SV(home) | 4-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 4-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Grulla Morioka(home) | 3-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Machida Zelvia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Apr 3, 2024 | Machida Zelvia 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia on Oct 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Machida Zelvia score 2.0 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Machida Zelvia | 2.0 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th in J1 League (7 points from 3 matches) and Machida Zelvia sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia?
- The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Machida Zelvia.
- Where and when is Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia played?
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia is played on April 24, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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