Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima: prediction and stats
Primera AClausura - 10Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín, Bogotá, D.C.
The Footlab model makes Santa Fe the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Deportes Tolima. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Santa Fe (1,853) and Deportes Tolima (1,813).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Fe have 7 wins, 7 draws and 1 defeats; Deportes Tolima have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | America de Cali(home) | 0-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | River Plate(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chico(home) | 2-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Union Magdalena(home) | 2-0 | Copa Colombia |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Once Caldas(home) | 2-2 | Primera A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bucaramanga(home) | 0-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(home) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Internacional de Bogota(home) | 2-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Independiente Medellin(home) | 2-3 | Primera A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Alianza Valledupar(away) | 2-1 | Primera A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Santa Fe win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Deportes Tolima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Deportes Tolima 2-2 Santa Fe | Primera A |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Deportes Tolima 1-0 Santa Fe | Primera A |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Santa Fe 1-2 Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Deportes Tolima 0-1 Santa Fe | Primera A |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Santa Fe 0-0 Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| Sep 30, 2024 | Deportes Tolima 0-0 Santa Fe | Primera A |
Last archived meeting: Deportes Tolima vs Santa Fe on Apr 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Fe score 1.5 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Deportes Tolima score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Fe | 1.5 | 0.5 | 9 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Deportes Tolima | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santa Fe sit 7th in Primera A (29 points from 19 matches) and Deportes Tolima sit 6th (31 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Deportes Tolima | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 31 | 21 | 37 |
| 4 | Santa Fe | 23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 35 | 24 | 35 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 29 |
| 10 | Santa Fe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Fe the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 21% for Deportes Tolima.
- Where and when is Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima played?
- Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima is played on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín, in the Primera A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 13, 2026ChicovsIndependiente Medellin
- Sep 13, 2026JaguaresvsFortaleza FC
- Sep 13, 2026Internacional de BogotavsLlaneros
- Sep 13, 2026Once CaldasvsDeportivo Cali
- Sep 13, 2026Atletico NacionalvsÁguilas Doradas
- Sep 13, 2026America de CalivsDeportivo Pasto
- Sep 13, 2026Alianza ValleduparvsJunior
- Sep 13, 2026Deportivo PereiravsBucaramanga