Sport Recife vs Criciuma: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco
The Footlab model makes Sport Recife the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Criciuma. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sport Recife vs Criciuma?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Sport Recife (1,874) and Criciuma (1,907).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sport Recife have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Criciuma have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 3-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Avai(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vila Nova(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Cuiaba(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(home) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Botafogo SP(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Goias(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nautico Recife(home) | 0-0 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sport Recife win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Criciuma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | Criciuma 1-0 Sport Recife | Serie B |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Sport Recife 3-3 Criciuma | Serie B |
| May 25, 2023 | Criciuma 1-0 Sport Recife | Serie B |
| Aug 3, 2022 | Sport Recife 1-1 Criciuma | Serie B |
| Apr 23, 2022 | Criciuma 1-1 Sport Recife | Serie B |
| Nov 9, 2019 | Sport Recife 1-0 Criciuma | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Criciuma vs Sport Recife on Jul 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sport Recife score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Criciuma score 1.0 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Criciuma | 1.0 | 0.6 | 8 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sport Recife sit 6th in Serie B (38 points from 24 matches) and Criciuma sit 1st (44 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciuma | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 44 |
| 6 | Sport Recife | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 32 | 22 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sport Recife vs Criciuma?
- The Footlab model makes Sport Recife the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Criciuma.
- Where and when is Sport Recife vs Criciuma played?
- Sport Recife vs Criciuma is played on October 24, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.