Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Moisés Lucarelli, Campinas, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Fortaleza EC the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Ponte Preta. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC starts as the favourite with a 290-point Elo edge (1,942 vs 1,652).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ponte Preta have 0 wins, 3 draws and 12 defeats; Fortaleza EC have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Avai(home) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Vila Nova(away) | 0-6 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Nautico Recife(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ceara(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | São Bernardo(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cuiaba(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 3-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Ponte Preta win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Fortaleza EC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 2026 | Fortaleza EC 2-0 Ponte Preta | Serie B |
| Oct 26, 2018 | Fortaleza EC 1-1 Ponte Preta | Serie B |
| Jul 8, 2018 | Ponte Preta 2-0 Fortaleza EC | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Fortaleza EC vs Ponte Preta on Jul 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ponte Preta score 0.6 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fortaleza EC score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Fortaleza EC | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ponte Preta sit 20th in Serie B (10 points from 24 matches) and Fortaleza EC sit 4th (40 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 27 | 21 | 40 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 24 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 50 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC?
- The Footlab model makes Fortaleza EC the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Ponte Preta.
- Where and when is Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC played?
- Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC is played on October 24, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Moisés Lucarelli, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.