Where and when is Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki played?

Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is played on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, in the I Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 30Kick-off on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, Mielec

Stal Mielec

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

The Footlab model makes Stal Mielec the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?

A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Stal Mielec (1,821) and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (1,835).

Stal Mielec win45 %

Draw25 %

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win30 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stal Mielec have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have 4, 6 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Stal Mielec
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	ŁKS Łódź(away)	0-4	I Liga
Aug 16, 2026	Polonia Bytom(home)	5-2	I Liga
Aug 8, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	1-1	I Liga
Aug 2, 2026	Podbeskidzie(home)	3-3	I Liga
Jul 26, 2026	Unia Skierniewice(away)	2-1	I Liga

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Polonia Bytom(away)	2-2	I Liga
Aug 14, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	1-1	I Liga
Aug 8, 2026	Miedz Legnica(away)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 2, 2026	Puszcza Niepołomice(home)	1-0	I Liga
Jul 25, 2026	Lechia Gdansk(away)	3-0	I Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Stal Mielec win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 6, 2026	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1-2 Stal Mielec	I Liga
Sep 19, 2025	Stal Mielec 1-2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	I Liga

Last archived meeting: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec on Apr 6, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Stal Mielec score 2.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Stal Mielec	2.1	1.9	0	13/15	12/15
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	1.1	1.2	6	8/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Stal Mielec sit 7th in I Liga (8 points from 5 matches) and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki sit 1st (11 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	5	3	2	0	8	3	11
7	Stal Mielec	5	2	2	1	11	11	8

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?: The Footlab model makes Stal Mielec the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
Where and when is Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki played?: Stal Mielec vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is played on May 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato, in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.