Match

Stranraer vs East Kilbride: prediction and stats

Challenge CupGroup Stage - 5Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stair Park, Stranraer

StranraerEast Kilbride

The Footlab model makes East Kilbride the favourite at 46%, against 22% for a draw and 32% for Stranraer. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Stranraer vs East Kilbride?

East Kilbride starts as the favourite with a 173-point Elo edge (1,719 vs 1,545).

Stranraer win32 %
Draw22 %
East Kilbride win46 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stranraer have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; East Kilbride have 10, 1 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Stranraer
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Stirling Albion(away)2-2League Two
Aug 15, 2026Spartans(home)1-0League Two
Aug 11, 2026Alloa Athletic(away)1-2Challenge Cup
Aug 8, 2026Annan Athletic(home)0-1League Two
Aug 1, 2026Clyde(away)1-3League Two
East Kilbride
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Montrose(away)0-3League One
Aug 15, 2026Cove Rangers(home)3-0League One
Aug 11, 2026Kilmarnock II(home)5-3Challenge Cup
Aug 8, 2026Airdrie United(away)1-1League One
Aug 1, 2026Queen of the South(home)5-1League One

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Stranraer win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 East Kilbride win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 14, 2026Stranraer 2-1 East KilbrideLeague Two
Jan 24, 2026East Kilbride 0-2 StranraerLeague Two
Dec 9, 2025East Kilbride 1-4 StranraerChallenge Cup
Nov 15, 2025Stranraer 1-3 East KilbrideLeague Two
Aug 16, 2025East Kilbride 3-1 StranraerLeague Two
May 18, 2024Stranraer 3-1 East KilbrideLeague Two

Last archived meeting: Stranraer vs East Kilbride on Mar 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Stranraer score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; East Kilbride score 2.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Stranraer1.01.356/157/15
East Kilbride2.91.367/1512/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Stranraer vs East Kilbride?
The Footlab model makes East Kilbride the favourite at 46%, against 22% for a draw and 32% for Stranraer.
Where and when is Stranraer vs East Kilbride played?
Stranraer vs East Kilbride is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stair Park, in the Challenge Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Stranraer and East Kilbride

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