Where and when is Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire played?

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire is played on September 5, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at BMO Field, in the Major League Soccer.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire: prediction and stats

Major League SoccerRegular Season - 26Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario

Toronto FC

Chicago Fire

The Footlab model makes Chicago Fire the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Toronto FC. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?

A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Toronto FC (1,804) and Chicago Fire (1,851).

Toronto FC win36 %

Draw26 %

Chicago Fire win38 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toronto FC have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Chicago Fire have 9, 1 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Toronto FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Inter Miami(away)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 19, 2026	Charlotte(home)	3-3	Major League Soccer
Aug 15, 2026	New England Revolution(home)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 31, 2026	New York City FC(away)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 25, 2026	DC United(away)	1-2	Major League Soccer

Chicago Fire
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	New York Red Bulls(away)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 19, 2026	Orlando City SC(away)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 16, 2026	Portland Timbers(home)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 14, 2026	Cruz Azul(away)	2-1	Leagues Cup
Aug 10, 2026	Santos Laguna(home)	3-1	Leagues Cup

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Toronto FC win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Chicago Fire win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 24, 2026	Chicago Fire 2-1 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
Oct 5, 2025	Chicago Fire 2-2 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
Mar 15, 2025	Toronto FC 1-2 Chicago Fire	Major League Soccer
Sep 29, 2024	Chicago Fire 1-1 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
Jun 15, 2024	Toronto FC 1-4 Chicago Fire	Major League Soccer
Jul 16, 2023	Chicago Fire 1-0 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer

Last archived meeting: Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC on May 24, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Toronto FC score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Chicago Fire score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Toronto FC	1.5	1.9	2	13/15	11/15
Chicago Fire	1.9	1.5	2	13/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Toronto FC sit 10th in Major League Soccer (24 points from 21 matches) and Chicago Fire sit 3rd (36 points from 20 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Chicago Fire	20	11	3	6	37	26	36
10	Toronto FC	21	5	9	7	31	37	24

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?: The Footlab model makes Chicago Fire the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Toronto FC.
Where and when is Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire played?: Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire is played on September 5, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at BMO Field, in the Major League Soccer.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.