Treowen Stars vs Baglan Dragons: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Treowen Stars vs Baglan Dragons?
Treowen Stars starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,581 vs 1,474).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Treowen Stars have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Baglan Dragons have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(away) | 4-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Llantwit Major(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Treowen Stars win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Baglan Dragons win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | Treowen Stars 4-1 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Baglan Dragons 3-4 Treowen Stars | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Treowen Stars vs Baglan Dragons on Mar 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Treowen Stars score 2.0 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Baglan Dragons score 0.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treowen Stars | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Baglan Dragons | 0.5 | 2.1 | 4 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Treowen Stars sit 3rd in FAW Championship (9 points from 4 matches) and Baglan Dragons sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Treowen Stars vs Baglan Dragons?
- The Footlab model makes Treowen Stars the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is Treowen Stars vs Baglan Dragons played?
- Treowen Stars vs Baglan Dragons is played on October 31, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 30, 2026Pontypridd Townvsllanelli AFC
- Oct 30, 2026Caerphilly AthleticvsCaerau (Ely)
- Oct 31, 2026Llantwit MajorvsNewport City
- Oct 31, 2026Ynyshir AlbionsvsSwansea University
- Oct 31, 2026Cardiff DraconiansvsAfan Lido
- Oct 31, 2026Pontardawe TownvsCarmarthen Town
- Oct 31, 2026Aberystwyth TownvsTrethomas Bluebirds