Trofense vs Fafe: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 15Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense, Trofa
The Footlab model makes Fafe the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Trofense. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Trofense vs Fafe?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Trofense (1,859) and Fafe (1,940).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Trofense have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Fafe have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vianense(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | AVS(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Academica(away) | 0-3 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Guimaraes B(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | São João Ver(away) | 3-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vianense(home) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Maria da Fonte(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Chaves(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Trofense win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Fafe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | Fafe 1-2 Trofense | Liga 3 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Trofense 5-1 Fafe | Liga 3 |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Trofense 3-2 Fafe | Liga 3 |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Fafe 1-0 Trofense | Liga 3 |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Fafe 2-3 Trofense | Liga 3 |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Trofense 1-3 Fafe | Liga 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Trofense score 0.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fafe score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trofense | 0.5 | 1.1 | 3 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Fafe | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Trofense sit 8th in Liga 3 (3 points from 3 matches) and Fafe sit 4th (5 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fafe | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Trofense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Trofense vs Fafe?
- The Footlab model makes Fafe the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Trofense.
- Where and when is Trofense vs Fafe played?
- Trofense vs Fafe is played on January 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.