Lusitano Évora 1911 vs União Santarém: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 15Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Estrela, Évora
The Footlab model makes Lusitano Évora 1911 the favourite at 46%, against 31% for a draw and 23% for União Santarém. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lusitano Évora 1911 vs União Santarém?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Lusitano Évora 1911 (1,936) and União Santarém (1,853).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lusitano Évora 1911 have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; União Santarém have 1, 6 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mafra(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atlético CP(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 0-5 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Oliveirense(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SC Covilha(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Academica(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Lusitano Évora 1911 win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 União Santarém win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | Lusitano Évora 1911 1-0 União Santarém | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2025 | União Santarém 1-0 Lusitano Évora 1911 | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Lusitano Évora 1911 vs União Santarém on Nov 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Lusitano Évora 1911 score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; União Santarém score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lusitano Évora 1911 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| União Santarém | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lusitano Évora 1911 sit 4th in Liga 3 (4 points from 3 matches) and União Santarém sit 10th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | União Santarém | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lusitano Évora 1911 vs União Santarém?
- The Footlab model makes Lusitano Évora 1911 the favourite at 46%, against 31% for a draw and 23% for União Santarém.
- Where and when is Lusitano Évora 1911 vs União Santarém played?
- Lusitano Évora 1911 vs União Santarém is played on January 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Estrela, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.