Varzim vs São João Ver: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 15Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Varzim Sport Club, Póvoa de Varzim
The Footlab model makes Varzim the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for São João Ver. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varzim vs São João Ver?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Varzim (1,948) and São João Ver (1,873).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varzim have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; São João Ver have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira(away) | 4-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Trofense(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tirsense(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Trofense(away) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Fafe(home) | 1-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Leça(away) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Sanjoanense(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Varzim win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 São João Ver win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | São João Ver 1-1 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Varzim 4-0 São João Ver | Liga 3 |
| Jan 26, 2025 | São João Ver 4-1 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Varzim 2-0 São João Ver | Liga 3 |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Varzim 1-1 São João Ver | Liga 3 |
| Apr 1, 2023 | São João Ver 2-1 Varzim | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: São João Ver vs Varzim on Nov 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Varzim score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; São João Ver score 1.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varzim | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| São João Ver | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Varzim sit 1st in Liga 3 (9 points from 3 matches) and São João Ver sit 9th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varzim | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | São João Ver | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varzim vs São João Ver?
- The Footlab model makes Varzim the favourite at 52%, against 27% for a draw and 21% for São João Ver.
- Where and when is Varzim vs São João Ver played?
- Varzim vs São João Ver is played on January 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Varzim Sport Club, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.