Uganda vs Botswana: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Hamz Stadium, Kampala
The Footlab AI model makes Uganda the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Botswana. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Uganda vs Botswana?
Uganda starts as the favourite with a 137-point Elo edge (1,582 vs 1,445).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Uganda vs Botswana
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Uganda
3-4-3- 9A. Vula
- 14K. Boateng
- 7R. Mato
- 4K. Semakula
- 22B. Alhassan
- 15A. Sissako
- 23A. Kayondo
- 5T. Sibbick
- 3R. Torach
- 21S. Diaby
- 18D. Onyango
Botswana
4-3-3- 11T. Orebonye
- 10T. Setsile
- 9T. Kgamanyane
- 6G. Mohutsiwa
- 14Godiraone Modingwane
- 8Olebogeng Ramotse
- 20T. Kopelang
- 4Moshe Gaolaolwe
- 5A. Velaphi
- 21Benson Kitso Mangolo
- 23G. Phoko
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:31 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Uganda have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Botswana have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Congo DR(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Congo DR(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Libya(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Tunisia(away) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Nigeria(home) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Tunisia(away) | 2-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Libya(away) | 2-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Zimbabwe(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Congo DR(home) | 0-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Uganda wins, 0 draws, 0 Botswana wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | Botswana 0-1 Uganda | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Jun 7, 2024 | Uganda 1-0 Botswana | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
How many goals should we expect?
Uganda score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Botswana score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uganda | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Botswana | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Uganda sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (4 points from 2 matches) and Botswana sit 2nd (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uganda | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Botswana | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
A question about Uganda vs Botswana?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Uganda vs Botswana?
- The Footlab AI model makes Uganda the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Botswana.
- Where and when is Uganda vs Botswana played?
- Uganda vs Botswana is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Hamz Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.