Where and when is V-varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama played?

V-varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama is played on March 20, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

V-varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, Nagasaki

V-varen Nagasaki

Fagiano Okayama

The Footlab model makes Fagiano Okayama the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for V-varen Nagasaki. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win V-varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama?

A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate V-varen Nagasaki (1,910) and Fagiano Okayama (1,938).

V-varen Nagasaki win36 %

Draw27 %

Fagiano Okayama win37 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, V-varen Nagasaki have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Fagiano Okayama have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

V-varen Nagasaki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	3-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 21, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	2-4	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(home)	2-1	J1 League
Jul 17, 2026	Utrecht(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

Fagiano Okayama
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Beluga Rosso Iwami(home)	3-0	Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026	Tokyo Verdy(home)	0-0	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki(home)	1-0	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(away)	1-2	J1 League
Jul 25, 2026	FC Schalke 04(away)	1-3	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 V-varen Nagasaki win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Fagiano Okayama win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Fagiano Okayama 1-0 V-varen Nagasaki	J1 League
May 6, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki 2-1 Fagiano Okayama	J1 League
Mar 21, 2026	Fagiano Okayama 0-1 V-varen Nagasaki	J1 League
Sep 29, 2024	Fagiano Okayama 1-0 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
May 12, 2024	V-varen Nagasaki 0-0 Fagiano Okayama	J2 League
Jul 16, 2023	Fagiano Okayama 2-2 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Fagiano Okayama vs V-varen Nagasaki on Aug 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

V-varen Nagasaki score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Fagiano Okayama score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
V-varen Nagasaki	1.4	1.6	2	10/15	9/15
Fagiano Okayama	1.4	1.0	7	7/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

V-varen Nagasaki sit 16th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Fagiano Okayama sit 9th (4 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
9	Fagiano Okayama	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
16	V-varen Nagasaki	3	1	0	2	4	6	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for V-varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama?: The Footlab model makes Fagiano Okayama the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for V-varen Nagasaki.
Where and when is V-varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama played?: V-varen Nagasaki vs Fagiano Okayama is played on March 20, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.