Machida Zelvia vs Mito Hollyhock: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Machida Gion Stadium, Tokyo
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Mito Hollyhock. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Mito Hollyhock?
Machida Zelvia starts as the favourite with a 284-point Elo edge (2,116 vs 1,832).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machida Zelvia have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Mito Hollyhock have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Grulla Morioka(home) | 3-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Kyoto Sangyo University(home) | 0-2 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(away) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kashiwa Reysol(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Machida Zelvia win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Mito Hollyhock win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock 2-2 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Machida Zelvia 2-2 Mito Hollyhock | J1 League |
| Jun 24, 2023 | Mito Hollyhock 1-1 Machida Zelvia | J2 League |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Machida Zelvia 3-0 Mito Hollyhock | J2 League |
| Jul 6, 2022 | Machida Zelvia 2-3 Mito Hollyhock | J2 League |
| May 8, 2022 | Mito Hollyhock 0-0 Machida Zelvia | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia on Apr 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Machida Zelvia score 2.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mito Hollyhock score 1.0 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 2.0 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Mito Hollyhock | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Machida Zelvia sit 1st in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Mito Hollyhock sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Mito Hollyhock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Machida Zelvia vs Mito Hollyhock?
- The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Mito Hollyhock.
- Where and when is Machida Zelvia vs Mito Hollyhock played?
- Machida Zelvia vs Mito Hollyhock is played on March 20, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Machida Gion Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 20, 2027Kashiwa ReysolvsTokyo Verdy
- Mar 20, 2027Sanfrecce HiroshimavsGamba Osaka
- Mar 20, 2027V-varen NagasakivsFagiano Okayama
- Mar 20, 2027Nagoya GrampusvsVissel Kobe
- Mar 20, 2027Cerezo OsakavsKyoto Sanga
- Mar 20, 2027Kawasaki FrontalevsFC Tokyo
- Mar 20, 2027Yokohama F. MarinosvsUrawa
- Mar 20, 2027Avispa FukuokavsJEF United Chiba