1º Dezembro vs Real: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo Conde de Sucena, Sintra
The Footlab model makes 1º Dezembro the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Real. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win 1º Dezembro vs Real?
1º Dezembro starts as the favourite with a 199-point Elo edge (1,805 vs 1,606).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, 1º Dezembro have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Real have 0, 3 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira(away) | 0-5 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| May 2, 2026 | Caldas(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Atlético CP(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Amora(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2025 | Lajeadense(away) | 0-0 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 23, 2025 | Novo Hamburgo(home) | 0-3 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Passo Fundo(home) | 1-3 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 16, 2025 | União RS(away) | 1-1 | Gaúcho - 2 |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Gramadense(home) | 0-1 | Gaúcho - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 1º Dezembro win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Real win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2020 | 1º Dezembro 1-0 Real | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
How many goals should we expect?
1º Dezembro score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Real score 0.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1º Dezembro | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Real | 0.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for 1º Dezembro vs Real?
- The Footlab model makes 1º Dezembro the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Real.
- Where and when is 1º Dezembro vs Real played?
- 1º Dezembro vs Real is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Conde de Sucena, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.