Where and when is Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios played?

Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios is played on September 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, in the Primera A.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios: prediction and stats

Primera AClausura - 12Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín

Atletico Nacional

Millonarios

The Footlab model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Millonarios. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?

Atletico Nacional starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,916 vs 1,815).

Atletico Nacional win58 %

Draw25 %

Millonarios win17 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Nacional have 11 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Millonarios have 7, 5 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Atletico Nacional
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Fortaleza FC(away)	2-1	Primera A
Aug 10, 2026	America de Cali(away)	0-1	Primera A
Aug 2, 2026	Jaguares(away)	3-0	Primera A
Jul 29, 2026	Tigres FC(away)	2-0	Copa Colombia
Jul 21, 2026	Tigres FC(home)	2-0	Copa Colombia

Millonarios
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Águilas Doradas(away)	1-1	Primera A
Aug 5, 2026	Deportivo Pasto(home)	2-0	Primera A
Aug 2, 2026	Junior(away)	1-0	Primera A
Jul 25, 2026	Bucaramanga(home)	0-1	Primera A
Jul 18, 2026	Colo Colo(home)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Atletico Nacional win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Millonarios win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 18, 2026	Millonarios 3-0 Atletico Nacional	Primera A
Mar 5, 2026	Atletico Nacional 1-3 Millonarios	CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Sep 28, 2025	Atletico Nacional 2-0 Millonarios	Primera A
Jun 17, 2025	Atletico Nacional 0-1 Millonarios	Primera A
Jun 6, 2025	Millonarios 0-0 Atletico Nacional	Primera A
Apr 13, 2025	Millonarios 0-0 Atletico Nacional	Primera A

Last archived meeting: Millonarios vs Atletico Nacional on Mar 18, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Atletico Nacional score 1.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Millonarios score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Atletico Nacional	1.9	0.8	6	5/15	7/15
Millonarios	1.9	1.0	5	8/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Atletico Nacional sit 1st in Primera A (40 points from 19 matches) and Millonarios sit 10th (26 points from 19 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional	19	13	1	5	35	15	40
1	Atletico Nacional	25	18	1	6	49	21	55
8	Millonarios	4	2	1	1	4	2	7
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31	23	26
10	Millonarios	19	7	5	7	31	23	26
10	Atletico Nacional	3	2	0	1	5	2	6

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios?: The Footlab model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Millonarios.
Where and when is Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios played?: Atletico Nacional vs Millonarios is played on September 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, in the Primera A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.