Where and when is Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima played?

Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is played on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu

Tokyo Verdy

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Tokyo Verdy. The most likely score is 0-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima starts as the favourite with a 218-point Elo edge (2,088 vs 1,869).

Tokyo Verdy win16 %

Draw22 %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima win62 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tokyo Verdy have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10, 3 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Tokyo Verdy
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-0	J1 League
Aug 14, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(home)	1-3	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kawasaki Frontale(home)	1-1	J1 League
Jun 6, 2026	Gamba Osaka(home)	2-4	J1 League
May 30, 2026	Gamba Osaka(away)	1-1	J1 League

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Kawasaki Frontale(home)	1-1	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Urawa(away)	4-1	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	JEF United Chiba(home)	3-0	J1 League
Jul 28, 2026	Verspah Oita(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 11, 2026	Sturm Graz(away)	1-5	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Tokyo Verdy win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2025	Tokyo Verdy 0-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima	J1 League
May 17, 2025	Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Tokyo Verdy	J1 League
Aug 7, 2024	Tokyo Verdy 0-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima	J1 League
Jun 15, 2024	Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-1 Tokyo Verdy	J1 League
May 22, 2024	Tokyo Verdy 2-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima	J-League Cup

Last archived meeting: Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima on Aug 23, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Tokyo Verdy score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Tokyo Verdy	0.9	1.5	5	8/15	6/15
Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2.1	1.0	6	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Tokyo Verdy sit 17th in J1 League (2 points from 3 matches) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3	2	1	0	8	2	7
17	Tokyo Verdy	3	0	2	1	2	4	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?: The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Tokyo Verdy.
Where and when is Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima played?: Tokyo Verdy vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is played on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.