Match

Barakaldo vs Ponferradina: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 34Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, Barakaldo

BarakaldoPonferradina

The Footlab AI model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Barakaldo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ponferradina wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,771 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Barakaldo vs Ponferradina?

A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Barakaldo (1,954) and Ponferradina (1,982).

32%31%37%
Barakaldo winDrawPonferradina win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Barakaldo vs Ponferradina

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Barakaldo

4-3-3
  1. 19Ángel Troncho
  2. 11Carlos Mattheus
  3. 27E. Mateos
  1. 15I. Jimenez
  2. 21X. Fernandez
  3. 14U. Collado
  1. 3Ander Zoilo
  2. 18Benat Gomez
  3. 17Pablo Trigueros
  4. 5Aritz Muguruza
  1. 13Gaizka Campos

Ponferradina

4-2-3-1
  1. 10Borja Valle
  1. 6Fede San Emeterio
  2. 15O. Vacas
  3. 5Eneko Undabarrena
  4. 8Arturo Molina
  5. 16Ntji Tounkara
  1. 4A. Jelbat
  2. 22E. Hernandez
  3. 3Sergio Nieto
  4. 23A. Roig
  1. 1Álex Domínguez

Computed on October 28, 2026 at 07:44 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barakaldo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Ponferradina have 4, 7 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Barakaldo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 24, 2026Ponferradina(away)0-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 17, 2026Mirandes(home)2-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 10, 2026UD Ourense(away)0-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 3, 2026Arenas Getxo(home)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026Real Avilés(home)3-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Ponferradina
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 27, 2026Llanera(away)1-1Copa del Rey
Oct 24, 2026Barakaldo(home)0-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 17, 2026Zamora(away)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 11, 2026Real Avilés(home)0-2Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 4, 2026Mirandes(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Barakaldo win, 2 draws, 2 Ponferradina wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 24, 2026Ponferradina 0-0 BarakaldoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 19, 2026Ponferradina 1-0 BarakaldoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 9, 2025Barakaldo 0-0 PonferradinaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Feb 7, 2025Ponferradina 0-1 BarakaldoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 17, 2024Barakaldo 0-1 PonferradinaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Ponferradina vs Barakaldo on Oct 24, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Barakaldo score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ponferradina score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Barakaldo1.21.165/154/15
Ponferradina0.91.267/155/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Barakaldo sit 15th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (10 points from 9 matches) and Ponferradina sit 10th (13 points from 9 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
10Ponferradina93426613
15Barakaldo924381010

A question about Barakaldo vs Ponferradina?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Barakaldo vs Ponferradina?
The Footlab AI model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Barakaldo.
Where and when is Barakaldo vs Ponferradina played?
Barakaldo vs Ponferradina is played on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Barakaldo and Ponferradina

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