Where and when is Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Airdrie United played?

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Airdrie United is played on September 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Ferguson Park, in the Challenge Cup.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Airdrie United: prediction and stats

Challenge CupGroup Stage - 4Kick-off on September 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Ferguson Park, Rosewell

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Airdrie United

The Footlab model makes Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic the favourite at 62%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Airdrie United. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Airdrie United?

A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (1,666) and Airdrie United (1,600).

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win62 %

Draw19 %

Airdrie United win18 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Airdrie United have 2, 3 and 10.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 25, 2026	Rangers U21(home)	2-1	Challenge Cup
Aug 22, 2026	Berwick Rangers(away)	2-0	Football League - Lowland League
Aug 11, 2026	Annan Athletic(home)	1-0	Challenge Cup
Aug 8, 2026	East Stirlingshire(home)	4-1	Football League - Lowland League
Aug 1, 2026	Brechin(home)	1-2	Football League - Lowland League

Airdrie United
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 25, 2026	Stirling Albion(home)	1-3	Challenge Cup
Aug 22, 2026	Ross County(home)	1-3	League One
Aug 15, 2026	Hamilton Academical(away)	0-4	League One
Aug 11, 2026	Dumbarton(away)	3-1	Challenge Cup
Aug 8, 2026	East Kilbride(home)	1-1	League One

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Airdrie United win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 15, 2025	Airdrie United 3-0 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	League Cup
Jul 29, 2023	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 0-1 Airdrie United	League Cup

Last archived meeting: Airdrie United vs Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic on Jul 15, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic score 2.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Airdrie United score 1.0 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	2.5	1.5	5	10/15	13/15
Airdrie United	1.0	1.9	2	9/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Airdrie United?: The Footlab model makes Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic the favourite at 62%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Airdrie United.
Where and when is Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Airdrie United played?: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Airdrie United is played on September 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Ferguson Park, in the Challenge Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.