Where and when is Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II played?

Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II is played on September 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at The moreroom.com Stadium, in the Challenge Cup.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II: prediction and stats

Challenge CupGroup Stage - 4Kick-off on September 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)The moreroom.com Stadium, Dumbarton

Dumbarton

Kilmarnock II

The Footlab model makes Dumbarton the favourite at 45%, against 22% for a draw and 32% for Kilmarnock II. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II?

A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Dumbarton (1,453) and Kilmarnock II (1,531).

Dumbarton win45 %

Draw22 %

Kilmarnock II win32 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dumbarton have 3 wins, 0 draws and 12 defeats; Kilmarnock II have 3, 1 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Dumbarton
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Kelty Hearts(away)	1-3	League Two
Aug 15, 2026	Edinburgh City(home)	0-3	League Two
Aug 11, 2026	Airdrie United(home)	1-3	Challenge Cup
Aug 8, 2026	Clyde(home)	1-0	League Two
Aug 1, 2026	Stirling Albion(away)	0-2	League Two

Kilmarnock II
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 11, 2026	East Kilbride(away)	3-5	Challenge Cup
Nov 11, 2025	Annan Athletic(away)	0-6	Challenge Cup
Oct 10, 2025	Clyde(away)	1-2	Challenge Cup
Sep 23, 2025	Alloa Athletic(away)	0-3	Challenge Cup
Sep 6, 2025	Stenhousemuir(away)	0-4	Challenge Cup

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Dumbarton win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Kilmarnock II win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 16, 2023	Kilmarnock II 1-1 Dumbarton	Challenge Cup

Last archived meeting: Kilmarnock II vs Dumbarton on Aug 16, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

Dumbarton score 0.9 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Kilmarnock II score 1.7 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Dumbarton	0.9	2.7	2	6/15	10/15
Kilmarnock II	1.7	2.7	1	7/12	10/12

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II?: The Footlab model makes Dumbarton the favourite at 45%, against 22% for a draw and 32% for Kilmarnock II.
Where and when is Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II played?: Dumbarton vs Kilmarnock II is played on September 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at The moreroom.com Stadium, in the Challenge Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.