Botev Ihtiman vs Oborishte: prediction and stats
Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Gradski stadion, Ihtiman
The Footlab model makes Botev Ihtiman the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Oborishte. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botev Ihtiman vs Oborishte?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Botev Ihtiman (1,469) and Oborishte (1,530).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botev Ihtiman have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Oborishte have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Balkan Botevgrad(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kostinbrod(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Slivnishki geroy(away) | 3-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia II(home) | 1-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| May 30, 2026 | Vitosha Bistritsa(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pirin Razlog(away) | 4-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Natsional Sofia(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chavdar Etropole(away) | 1-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | CSKA Sofia III(home) | 1-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| May 30, 2026 | Germaneya(home) | 5-1 | Third League - Southwest |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Botev Ihtiman win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Oborishte win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Oborishte 0-2 Botev Ihtiman | Third League - Southwest |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Botev Ihtiman 1-1 Oborishte | Third League - Southwest |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Botev Ihtiman 0-3 Oborishte | Third League - Southwest |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Oborishte 0-0 Botev Ihtiman | Third League - Southwest |
| May 18, 2024 | Oborishte 3-1 Botev Ihtiman | Third League - Southwest |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Botev Ihtiman 2-2 Oborishte | Third League - Southwest |
Last archived meeting: Oborishte vs Botev Ihtiman on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botev Ihtiman score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Oborishte score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Ihtiman | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Oborishte | 1.6 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botev Ihtiman sit 9th in Third League - Southwest (6 points from 4 matches) and Oborishte sit 3rd (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Oborishte | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | Botev Ihtiman | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botev Ihtiman vs Oborishte?
- The Footlab model makes Botev Ihtiman the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Oborishte.
- Where and when is Botev Ihtiman vs Oborishte played?
- Botev Ihtiman vs Oborishte is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Third League - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Balkan BotevgradvsCSKA Sofia III
- Oct 10, 2026KyustendilvsStrumska Slava
- Oct 10, 2026Septemvri SimitlivsBelasitsa
- Oct 10, 2026Slivnishki geroyvsNatsional Sofia
- Oct 10, 2026KostinbrodvsChavdar Etropole
- Oct 10, 2026Septemvri Sofia IIvsPirin Razlog
- Oct 10, 2026Levski Sofia IIvsFK Minyor Pernik
- Oct 10, 2026Slavia Sofia IIvsBansko