Chesterfield vs Northampton: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 21Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield, Derbyshire
The Footlab AI model makes Chesterfield the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Northampton. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chesterfield wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,857 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chesterfield vs Northampton?
Chesterfield starts as the favourite with a 137-point Elo edge (1,859 vs 1,722).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chesterfield vs Northampton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chesterfield
4-2-3-1- 10L. Bonis
- 20G. McEachran
- 8R. Stirk
- 24D. Markanday
- 18L. Marsh
- 31J. Randall
- 6J. Simpson
- 33R. Hutton
- 19L. Gordon
- 5K. McFadzean
- 23R. Boot
Northampton
4-4-2- 19O. Dale
- 9Matthew Warhurst
- 16J. Wormleighton
- 4J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh
- 8L. Evans
- 24C. Lemonheigh-Evans
- 6E. Moore
- 5J. Guthrie
- 22Joshua Alan Powell
- 44J. Donacien
- 1Z. Jeacock
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 07:44 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chesterfield have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Northampton have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Crawley Town(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 4-2 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Port Vale(home) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | York(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Cambridge United(away) | 1-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Chesterfield wins, 1 draw, 1 Northampton win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2022 | Chesterfield 1-0 Northampton | FA Cup |
| Feb 11, 2017 | Northampton 3-1 Chesterfield | League One |
| Sep 17, 2016 | Chesterfield 3-1 Northampton | League One |
| Jan 25, 2014 | Northampton 1-3 Chesterfield | League Two |
| Nov 26, 2013 | Chesterfield 0-0 Northampton | League Two |
| Jan 12, 2013 | Chesterfield 3-0 Northampton | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Chesterfield vs Northampton on Nov 5, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Chesterfield score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Northampton score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Northampton | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chesterfield sit 7th in League Two (15 points from 11 matches) and Northampton sit 22nd (10 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chesterfield | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 22 | Northampton | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
A question about Chesterfield vs Northampton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chesterfield vs Northampton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chesterfield the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Northampton.
- Where and when is Chesterfield vs Northampton played?
- Chesterfield vs Northampton is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at SMH Group Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.