Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 11:35 AM (UTC)Jinzhou Stadium, Dalian
The Footlab model makes Beijing Guoan the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Dalian Zhixing. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan starts as the favourite with a 197-point Elo edge (1,735 vs 1,539).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dalian Zhixing have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Beijing Guoan have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chongqing Tongliang Long(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | SHANGHAI SIPG(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yunnan Yukun(away) | 1-3 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shenyang Urban(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Henan Jianye(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Yunnan Yukun(home) | 3-3 | Super League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Shanghai Shenhua(away) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tianjin Teda(away) | 4-2 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sichuan Jiuniu(home) | 4-0 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hangzhou Greentown(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Dalian Zhixing win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Beijing Guoan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Beijing Guoan 3-0 Dalian Zhixing | Super League |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Beijing Guoan 4-2 Dalian Zhixing | Super League |
| Jun 21, 2025 | Dalian Zhixing 1-1 Beijing Guoan | FA Cup |
| May 5, 2025 | Dalian Zhixing 0-2 Beijing Guoan | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Zhixing on May 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dalian Zhixing score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Beijing Guoan score 2.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalian Zhixing | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
| Beijing Guoan | 2.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dalian Zhixing sit 3rd in Super League (22 points from 15 matches) and Beijing Guoan sit 10th (15 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 48 | 32 | 36 |
| 3 | Dalian Zhixing | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 22 |
| 4 | Dalian Zhixing | 24 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 40 | 36 |
| 10 | Beijing Guoan | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan?
- The Footlab model makes Beijing Guoan the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Dalian Zhixing.
- Where and when is Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan played?
- Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan is played on August 28, 2026 at 11:35 AM (UTC) at Jinzhou Stadium, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Aug 28, 2026Shanghai ShenhuavsShandong Luneng
- Aug 28, 2026Sichuan JiuniuvsSHANGHAI SIPG
- Aug 29, 2026Qingdao JonoonvsWuhan Three Towns
- Aug 29, 2026Tianjin TedavsQingdao Youth Island
- Aug 29, 2026Hangzhou GreentownvsYunnan Yukun
- Aug 29, 2026Chengdu Better CityvsShenyang Urban
- Aug 29, 2026Henan JianyevsChongqing Tongliang Long