Match

FC Tokyo vs Shimizu S-pulse: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 3, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu

FC TokyoShimizu S-pulse

The Footlab AI model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Shimizu S-pulse. The most likely score is 1-1. If FC Tokyo wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.5% of the 3,665 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC Tokyo vs Shimizu S-pulse?

FC Tokyo starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (2,118 vs 1,949).

59%24%17%
FC Tokyo winDrawShimizu S-pulse win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FC Tokyo vs Shimizu S-pulse

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FC Tokyo

4-4-2
  1. 26M. Nagakura
  2. 9Marcelo Ryan
  1. 8T. Ko
  2. 7S. Anzai
  3. 27Kyota Tokiwa
  4. 10K. Sato
  1. 24A. Scholz
  2. 4H. Inamura
  3. 6K. Bangnagande
  4. 22H. Ishihara
  1. 81Kim Seung-Gyu

Shimizu S-pulse

4-3-3
  1. 7Capixaba
  2. 13R. Germain
  3. 9Oh Se-Hun
  1. 17M. Yumiba
  2. 47Y. Shimamoto
  3. 21K. Matsuzaki
  1. 24H. Sugai
  2. 25Mateus Brunetti
  3. 4S. Hasukawa
  4. 15Y. Honda
  1. 16T. Umeda

Computed on October 27, 2026 at 01:50 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Tokyo have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat; Shimizu S-pulse have 6, 2 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC Tokyo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 25, 2026Mito Hollyhock(home)6-0J1 League
Oct 21, 2026Kashiwa Reysol(home)0-0J1 League
Oct 17, 2026Tokyo Verdy(away)4-0J1 League
Oct 14, 2026Mito Hollyhock(away)0-1J-League Cup
Oct 10, 2026Urawa(home)3-0J1 League
Shimizu S-pulse
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 24, 2026Sanfrecce Hiroshima(away)0-4J1 League
Oct 21, 2026Machida Zelvia(home)0-5J1 League
Oct 17, 2026Gamba Osaka(home)2-2J1 League
Oct 14, 2026Yokohama F. Marinos(away)1-2J-League Cup
Oct 11, 2026Mito Hollyhock(away)2-1J1 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC Tokyo wins, 2 draws, 2 Shimizu S-pulse wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 2, 2026Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 FC TokyoJ1 League
Oct 4, 2025Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 FC TokyoJ1 League
Apr 29, 2025FC Tokyo 0-2 Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League
Aug 7, 2022FC Tokyo 0-2 Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League
May 25, 2022Shimizu S-pulse 0-3 FC TokyoJ1 League
Nov 3, 2021FC Tokyo 4-0 Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League

Last archived meeting: Shimizu S-pulse vs FC Tokyo on Sep 2, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FC Tokyo score 2.5 and concede 0.3 goals per match over their last 15; Shimizu S-pulse score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FC Tokyo2.50.3122/157/15
Shimizu S-pulse1.11.628/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC Tokyo sit 2nd in J1 League (27 points from 12 matches) and Shimizu S-pulse sit 13th (14 points from 12 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2FC Tokyo1283127827
13Shimizu S-pulse12426102014

A question about FC Tokyo vs Shimizu S-pulse?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC Tokyo vs Shimizu S-pulse?
The Footlab AI model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Shimizu S-pulse.
Where and when is FC Tokyo vs Shimizu S-pulse played?
FC Tokyo vs Shimizu S-pulse is played on May 3, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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