Match

Gamba Osaka vs Kashima: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 33Kick-off on May 3, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Panasonic Stadium Suita, Suita

Gamba OsakaKashima

The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Gamba Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Gamba Osaka vs Kashima?

Kashima starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (2,160 vs 2,024).

Gamba Osaka win36 %
Draw26 %
Kashima win38 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gamba Osaka have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Kashima have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Gamba Osaka
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 26, 2026Biwako Shiga(home)2-0Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026Nagoya Grampus(away)1-3J1 League
Aug 15, 2026Mito Hollyhock(away)1-1J1 League
Aug 11, 2026Gangwon FC(away)1-0AFC Champions League Elite
Aug 7, 2026Urawa(home)4-3J1 League
Kashima
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 26, 2026Suzuka Unlimited(home)3-0Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026Avispa Fukuoka(home)3-2J1 League
Aug 15, 2026Nagoya Grampus(home)2-1J1 League
Aug 7, 2026Yokohama F. Marinos(away)4-3J1 League
Jul 15, 2026Vegalta Sendai(home)5-0Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Gamba Osaka win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Kashima win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 5, 2025Kashima 0-0 Gamba OsakaJ1 League
May 31, 2025Gamba Osaka 0-1 KashimaJ1 League
Jun 26, 2024Kashima 0-0 Gamba OsakaJ1 League
Apr 28, 2024Gamba Osaka 1-2 KashimaJ1 League
Jun 24, 2023Gamba Osaka 2-1 KashimaJ1 League
Apr 29, 2023Kashima 4-0 Gamba OsakaJ1 League

Last archived meeting: Kashima vs Gamba Osaka on Oct 5, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Gamba Osaka score 1.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Kashima score 2.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Gamba Osaka1.81.258/158/15
Kashima2.01.086/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Gamba Osaka sit 10th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Kashima sit 3rd (9 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Kashima3300969
10Gamba Osaka3111674

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Gamba Osaka vs Kashima?
The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Gamba Osaka.
Where and when is Gamba Osaka vs Kashima played?
Gamba Osaka vs Kashima is played on May 3, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Panasonic Stadium Suita, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Gamba Osaka and Kashima

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