Where and when is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 played?

Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 is played on March 3, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on March 3, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SV

SC Paderborn 07

The Footlab model makes Hamburger SV the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for SC Paderborn 07. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?

A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Hamburger SV (2,057) and SC Paderborn 07 (2,092).

Hamburger SV win38 %

Draw25 %

SC Paderborn 07 win37 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hamburger SV have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; SC Paderborn 07 have 7, 6 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hamburger SV
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Verl(away)	3-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Toulouse(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Lille(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Everton(home)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Rapid Vienna(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

SC Paderborn 07
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Phönix Lübeck(away)	4-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 8, 2026	Werder Bremen(away)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	VfL Osnabrück(away)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs
May 25, 2026	VfL Wolfsburg(home)	2-1	Bundesliga
May 21, 2026	VfL Wolfsburg(away)	0-0	Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Hamburger SV win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 SC Paderborn 07 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 2, 2025	SC Paderborn 07 2-0 Hamburger SV	2. Bundesliga
Sep 28, 2024	Hamburger SV 2-2 SC Paderborn 07	2. Bundesliga
May 10, 2024	SC Paderborn 07 1-0 Hamburger SV	2. Bundesliga
Dec 9, 2023	Hamburger SV 1-2 SC Paderborn 07	2. Bundesliga
May 5, 2023	Hamburger SV 2-2 SC Paderborn 07	2. Bundesliga
Oct 30, 2022	SC Paderborn 07 2-3 Hamburger SV	2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV on Mar 2, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Hamburger SV score 1.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; SC Paderborn 07 score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV	1.6	1.8	1	13/15	12/15
SC Paderborn 07	1.9	1.5	4	11/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?: The Footlab model makes Hamburger SV the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for SC Paderborn 07.
Where and when is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 played?: Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 is played on March 3, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.