Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Szczecin
The Footlab model makes Pogon Szczecin the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Korona Kielce. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Pogon Szczecin (1,993) and Korona Kielce (1,947).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pogon Szczecin have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Korona Kielce have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Wisla Krakow(home) | 2-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Motor Lublin(home) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cracovia Krakow(away) | 2-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Legia Warszawa(home) | 0-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Motor Lublin(home) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Widzew Łódź(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Legia Warszawa(home) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Jagiellonia(away) | 0-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Nieciecza(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Pogon Szczecin win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Korona Kielce win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Korona Kielce 1-0 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| Dec 9, 2024 | Korona Kielce 0-0 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Pogon Szczecin 3-0 Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Korona Kielce 2-2 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Korona Kielce | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce on Mar 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pogon Szczecin score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Korona Kielce score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Korona Kielce | 0.9 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pogon Szczecin sit 5th in Ekstraklasa (7 points from 4 matches) and Korona Kielce sit 11th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce?
- The Footlab model makes Pogon Szczecin the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Korona Kielce.
- Where and when is Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce played?
- Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce is played on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Oct 10, 2026Slask WroclawvsLech Poznan
- Oct 10, 2026Legia WarszawavsWisla Krakow
- Oct 10, 2026Piast GliwicevsWidzew Łódź
- Oct 10, 2026Cracovia KrakowvsZaglebie Lubin
- Oct 10, 2026Raków CzęstochowavsGKS Katowice
- Oct 10, 2026Radomiak RadomvsMotor Lublin
- Oct 10, 2026Wieczysta KrakówvsWisla Plock