Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Tarczyński Arena, Wrocław
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Slask Wroclaw. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (2,138 vs 1,958).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Slask Wroclaw have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Lech Poznan have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Widzew Łódź(home) | 3-3 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zaglebie Lubin(away) | 1-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cracovia Krakow(home) | 0-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Raków Częstochowa(home) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(away) | 1-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(home) | 3-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Slask Wroclaw win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Lech Poznan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Lech Poznan 1-0 Slask Wroclaw | Ekstraklasa |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Lech Poznan 0-0 Slask Wroclaw | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 20, 2023 | Slask Wroclaw 3-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 19, 2022 | Lech Poznan 1-3 Slask Wroclaw | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan on Mar 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Slask Wroclaw score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lech Poznan score 2.6 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Lech Poznan | 2.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Slask Wroclaw sit 12th in Ekstraklasa (5 points from 5 matches) and Lech Poznan sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Slask Wroclaw | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan?
- The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Slask Wroclaw.
- Where and when is Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan played?
- Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan is played on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Tarczyński Arena, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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