Malawi vs Angola: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 6Kick-off on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Bingu National Stadium, Lilongwe
The Footlab model makes Angola the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Malawi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malawi vs Angola?
Angola starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (1,578 vs 1,446).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malawi have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Angola have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Ethiopia(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Ethiopia(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Botswana(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Zambia U23(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Lesotho(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Central African Republic(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Mauritania(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Egypt(home) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Zimbabwe(home) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 22, 2025 | South Africa(away) | 1-2 | Africa Cup of Nations |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Malawi win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Angola win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 2025 | Malawi 0-1 Angola | COSAFA Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Malawi score 0.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Angola score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malawi | 0.5 | 0.8 | 5 | 4/15 | 2/15 |
| Angola | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malawi sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (4 points from 6 matches) and Angola sit 1st (14 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angola | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Malawi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malawi vs Angola?
- The Footlab model makes Angola the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Malawi.
- Where and when is Malawi vs Angola played?
- Malawi vs Angola is played on March 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Bingu National Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.