Where and when is Mérida AD vs Racing Ferrol played?

Mérida AD vs Racing Ferrol is played on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Romano, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Mérida AD vs Racing Ferrol: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 34Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Romano, Mérida

Mérida AD

Racing Ferrol

The Footlab model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Racing Ferrol. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mérida AD vs Racing Ferrol?

A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Mérida AD (1,871) and Racing Ferrol (1,831).

Mérida AD win44 %

Draw28 %

Racing Ferrol win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mérida AD have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Racing Ferrol have 2, 8 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mérida AD
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	Alcorcon(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 7, 2026	Leganes(away)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 28, 2026	Al-Nassr(home)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Benfica B(away)	0-4	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Osasuna II(away)	2-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Racing Ferrol
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 13, 2026	Real Avilés(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Real Madrid II(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Unionistas de Salamanca(away)	2-3	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 17, 2026	Osasuna II(home)	0-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 8, 2026	Arenas Getxo(away)	1-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Mérida AD win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Racing Ferrol win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 28, 2026	Mérida AD 2-1 Racing Ferrol	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 29, 2025	Racing Ferrol 2-2 Mérida AD	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 9, 2023	Mérida AD 2-1 Racing Ferrol	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 27, 2022	Racing Ferrol 1-1 Mérida AD	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Mérida AD vs Racing Ferrol on Mar 28, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mérida AD score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Racing Ferrol score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Mérida AD	0.9	1.9	1	8/15	7/15
Racing Ferrol	1.0	1.5	4	9/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mérida AD sit 10th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (52 points from 38 matches) and Racing Ferrol sit 12th (49 points from 38 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	Mérida AD	38	14	10	14	47	53	52
12	Racing Ferrol	38	13	10	15	41	47	49

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mérida AD vs Racing Ferrol?: The Footlab model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Racing Ferrol.
Where and when is Mérida AD vs Racing Ferrol played?: Mérida AD vs Racing Ferrol is played on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Romano, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.