Newcastle vs West Brom: prediction and stats
League CupRound of 64Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
The Footlab model makes Newcastle the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for West Brom. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle vs West Brom?
Newcastle starts as the favourite with a 261-point Elo edge (2,152 vs 1,891).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; West Brom have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Burnley(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 4-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Peterborough(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Newcastle win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 West Brom win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2021 | West Brom 0-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Dec 12, 2020 | Newcastle 2-1 West Brom | Premier League |
| Mar 3, 2020 | West Brom 2-3 Newcastle | FA Cup |
| Apr 28, 2018 | Newcastle 0-1 West Brom | Premier League |
| Nov 28, 2017 | West Brom 2-2 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Feb 6, 2016 | Newcastle 1-0 West Brom | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: West Brom vs Newcastle on Mar 7, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; West Brom score 2.1 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| West Brom | 2.1 | 0.6 | 8 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs West Brom?
- The Footlab model makes Newcastle the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for West Brom.
- Where and when is Newcastle vs West Brom played?
- Newcastle vs West Brom is played on August 26, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at St. James' Park, in the League Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.