Polonia Środa vs Noteć Czarnków: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 2Group II - 26Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej, Środa Wielkopolska
The Footlab model makes Polonia Środa the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Noteć Czarnków. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Polonia Środa vs Noteć Czarnków?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Polonia Środa (1,872) and Noteć Czarnków (1,791).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polonia Środa have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Noteć Czarnków have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lipno Stęszew(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Stargard Szczeciński(home) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Chemik Bydgoszcz(away) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Victoria Września(home) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bałtyk Koszalin(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Elana Toruń(home) | 3-1 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Kalisz(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Unia Swarzędz(away) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Grom Nowy Staw(home) | 0-2 | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Gedania Gdansk(away) | 3-5 | III Liga - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Polonia Środa win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Noteć Czarnków win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Noteć Czarnków 2-0 Polonia Środa | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Polonia Środa 2-6 Noteć Czarnków | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Noteć Czarnków 2-4 Polonia Środa | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Polonia Środa 2-2 Noteć Czarnków | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Noteć Czarnków 3-1 Polonia Środa | III Liga - Group 2 |
| Aug 11, 2023 | Polonia Środa 1-4 Noteć Czarnków | III Liga - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Noteć Czarnków vs Polonia Środa on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Polonia Środa score 1.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Noteć Czarnków score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Środa | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Noteć Czarnków | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Polonia Środa sit 1st in III Liga - Group 2 (15 points from 5 matches) and Noteć Czarnków sit 7th (9 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Noteć Czarnków | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Polonia Środa vs Noteć Czarnków?
- The Footlab model makes Polonia Środa the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Noteć Czarnków.
- Where and when is Polonia Środa vs Noteć Czarnków played?
- Polonia Środa vs Noteć Czarnków is played on April 10, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej, in the III Liga - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 10, 2027Lech Poznań IIvsElana Toruń
- Apr 10, 2027KaliszvsChemik Bydgoszcz
- Apr 10, 2027Bałtyk KoszalinvsLipno Stęszew
- Apr 10, 2027Flota ŚwinoujścievsGrom Nowy Staw
- Apr 10, 2027Kluczevia StargardvsWda Świecie
- Apr 10, 2027LuzinovsUnia Swarzędz
- Apr 10, 2027Victoria WrześniavsStargard Szczeciński
- Apr 10, 2027Kotwica KórnikvsGedania Gdansk