Where and when is Septemvri Simitli vs Natsional Sofia played?

Septemvri Simitli vs Natsional Sofia is played on August 29, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Struma, in the Third League - Southwest.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Septemvri Simitli vs Natsional Sofia: prediction and stats

Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 5Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Struma, Simitli

Septemvri Simitli

Natsional Sofia

The Footlab model makes Septemvri Simitli the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Natsional Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Septemvri Simitli vs Natsional Sofia?

A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Septemvri Simitli (1,489) and Natsional Sofia (1,463).

Septemvri Simitli win53 %

Draw25 %

Natsional Sofia win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Septemvri Simitli have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Natsional Sofia have 3, 1 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Septemvri Simitli
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Chavdar Etropole(away)	2-4	Third League - Southwest
Aug 15, 2026	CSKA Sofia III(home)	0-0	Third League - Southwest
Aug 8, 2026	Balkan Botevgrad(away)	2-1	Third League - Southwest
Aug 1, 2026	Kostinbrod(home)	2-0	Third League - Southwest
May 29, 2026	Kyustendil(home)	2-0	Third League - Southwest

Natsional Sofia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Strumska Slava(home)	0-3	Third League - Southwest
Aug 15, 2026	Oborishte(away)	1-3	Third League - Southwest
Aug 8, 2026	Bansko(home)	2-2	Third League - Southwest
Aug 1, 2026	FK Minyor Pernik(away)	0-1	Third League - Southwest
Sep 18, 2024	Rilski Sportist(home)	3-4	Cup

How many goals should we expect?

Septemvri Simitli score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Natsional Sofia score 3.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Septemvri Simitli	1.4	0.9	7	5/15	6/15
Natsional Sofia	3.4	2.0	2	5/9	8/9

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Septemvri Simitli sit 6th in Third League - Southwest (7 points from 4 matches) and Natsional Sofia sit 17th (1 points from 4 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Septemvri Simitli	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
17	Natsional Sofia	4	0	1	3	3	9	1

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Septemvri Simitli vs Natsional Sofia?: The Footlab model makes Septemvri Simitli the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Natsional Sofia.
Where and when is Septemvri Simitli vs Natsional Sofia played?: Septemvri Simitli vs Natsional Sofia is played on August 29, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Struma, in the Third League - Southwest.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.