Sunderland vs Liverpool: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 6, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Stadium of Light, Sunderland
The Footlab model makes Liverpool the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Sunderland. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sunderland vs Liverpool?
Liverpool starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (2,201 vs 2,058).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sunderland have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Liverpool have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-0 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 0-1 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Como(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 2-4 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-0 | Premier League - Summer Series |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Sunderland win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Liverpool win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | Liverpool 4-2 Sunderland | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Sunderland 0-1 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Liverpool 1-1 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Jan 2, 2017 | Sunderland 2-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Nov 26, 2016 | Liverpool 2-0 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Feb 6, 2016 | Liverpool 2-2 Sunderland | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Liverpool vs Sunderland on Jul 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sunderland score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Liverpool score 1.6 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Liverpool | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sunderland sit 13th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Liverpool sit 9th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sunderland vs Liverpool?
- The Footlab model makes Liverpool the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Sunderland.
- Where and when is Sunderland vs Liverpool played?
- Sunderland vs Liverpool is played on January 6, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium of Light, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.