York vs Newport County: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 25Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)LNER Community Stadium, York, North Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Newport County. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win York vs Newport County?
York starts as the favourite with a 269-point Elo edge (1,979 vs 1,709).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, York have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Newport County have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(home) | 3-2 | League Two |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Al-Ettifaq(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 3-5 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 York win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Newport County win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2016 | York 0-1 Newport County | League Two |
| Sep 5, 2015 | Newport County 0-3 York | League Two |
| Apr 25, 2015 | York 0-2 Newport County | League Two |
| Oct 11, 2014 | Newport County 3-1 York | League Two |
| Apr 26, 2014 | York 1-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Oct 19, 2013 | Newport County 3-0 York | League Two |
Last archived meeting: York vs Newport County on Jan 16, 2016
How many goals should we expect?
York score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Newport County score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Newport County | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
York sit 6th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Newport County sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | York | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Newport County | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for York vs Newport County?
- The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Newport County.
- Where and when is York vs Newport County played?
- York vs Newport County is played on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at LNER Community Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.