Belasitsa vs CSKA Sofia III: prediction and stats
Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Tsar Samuil, Petrich
The Footlab model makes Belasitsa the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for CSKA Sofia III. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Belasitsa vs CSKA Sofia III?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Belasitsa (1,483) and CSKA Sofia III (1,490).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Belasitsa have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; CSKA Sofia III have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia II(home) | 2-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FK Minyor Pernik(away) | 1-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Levski Sofia II(home) | 4-5 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pirin Razlog(away) | 3-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Belasica(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kyustendil(home) | 1-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Septemvri Simitli(away) | 0-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Strumska Slava(home) | 0-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Oborishte(away) | 1-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| May 30, 2026 | Kostinbrod(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Southwest |
How many goals should we expect?
Belasitsa score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; CSKA Sofia III score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belasitsa | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| CSKA Sofia III | 1.1 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Belasitsa sit 5th in Third League - Southwest (7 points from 4 matches) and CSKA Sofia III sit 12th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Belasitsa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | CSKA Sofia III | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Belasitsa vs CSKA Sofia III?
- The Footlab model makes Belasitsa the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for CSKA Sofia III.
- Where and when is Belasitsa vs CSKA Sofia III played?
- Belasitsa vs CSKA Sofia III is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Tsar Samuil, in the Third League - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026BanskovsLevski Sofia II
- Oct 17, 2026OborishtevsSlavia Sofia II
- Oct 17, 2026Strumska SlavavsBotev Ihtiman
- Oct 17, 2026FK Minyor PernikvsSeptemvri Sofia II
- Oct 17, 2026Chavdar EtropolevsBalkan Botevgrad
- Oct 17, 2026Pirin RazlogvsSlivnishki geroy
- Oct 17, 2026Septemvri SimitlivsKyustendil
- Oct 17, 2026Natsional SofiavsKostinbrod