Belasitsa vs Chavdar Etropole: prediction and stats
Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 14Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Tsar Samuil, Petrich
The Footlab model makes Belasitsa the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Chavdar Etropole. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Belasitsa vs Chavdar Etropole?
Chavdar Etropole starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (1,599 vs 1,483).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Belasitsa have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Chavdar Etropole have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia II(home) | 2-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FK Minyor Pernik(away) | 1-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Levski Sofia II(home) | 4-5 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pirin Razlog(away) | 3-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Belasica(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Septemvri Simitli(home) | 4-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Strumska Slava(away) | 1-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oborishte(home) | 1-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bansko(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Feb 17, 2024 | CSKA Sofia II(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Southwest |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Belasitsa win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Chavdar Etropole win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2022 | Chavdar Etropole 1-0 Belasitsa | Cup |
| Apr 9, 2022 | Chavdar Etropole 1-1 Belasitsa | Third League - Southwest |
| Sep 25, 2021 | Belasitsa 2-1 Chavdar Etropole | Third League - Southwest |
| May 29, 2021 | Belasitsa 3-1 Chavdar Etropole | Third League - Southwest |
| Nov 28, 2020 | Chavdar Etropole 0-1 Belasitsa | Third League - Southwest |
| Sep 28, 2019 | Chavdar Etropole 0-0 Belasitsa | Third League - Southwest |
Last archived meeting: Chavdar Etropole vs Belasitsa on Sep 22, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Belasitsa score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Chavdar Etropole score 2.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belasitsa | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Chavdar Etropole | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Belasitsa sit 5th in Third League - Southwest (7 points from 4 matches) and Chavdar Etropole sit 14th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Belasitsa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| 14 | Chavdar Etropole | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Belasitsa vs Chavdar Etropole?
- The Footlab model makes Belasitsa the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Chavdar Etropole.
- Where and when is Belasitsa vs Chavdar Etropole played?
- Belasitsa vs Chavdar Etropole is played on October 28, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Tsar Samuil, in the Third League - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 28, 2026BanskovsSlivnishki geroy
- Oct 28, 2026OborishtevsSeptemvri Sofia II
- Oct 28, 2026Strumska SlavavsLevski Sofia II
- Oct 28, 2026FK Minyor PernikvsKostinbrod
- Oct 28, 2026KyustendilvsBotev Ihtiman
- Oct 28, 2026Pirin RazlogvsBalkan Botevgrad
- Oct 28, 2026Septemvri SimitlivsSlavia Sofia II
- Oct 28, 2026Natsional SofiavsCSKA Sofia III