Natsional Sofia vs CSKA Sofia III: prediction and stats
Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 14Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Natsional Sofia the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for CSKA Sofia III. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Natsional Sofia vs CSKA Sofia III?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Natsional Sofia (1,463) and CSKA Sofia III (1,490).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 9 matches in all competitions, Natsional Sofia have 3 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; CSKA Sofia III have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Strumska Slava(home) | 0-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oborishte(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bansko(home) | 2-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FK Minyor Pernik(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Rilski Sportist(home) | 3-4 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kyustendil(home) | 1-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Septemvri Simitli(away) | 0-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Strumska Slava(home) | 0-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Oborishte(away) | 1-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| May 30, 2026 | Kostinbrod(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Southwest |
How many goals should we expect?
Natsional Sofia score 3.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 9; CSKA Sofia III score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natsional Sofia | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2 | 5/9 | 8/9 |
| CSKA Sofia III | 1.1 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 9 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Natsional Sofia sit 17th in Third League - Southwest (1 points from 4 matches) and CSKA Sofia III sit 12th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | CSKA Sofia III | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Natsional Sofia vs CSKA Sofia III?
- The Footlab model makes Natsional Sofia the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for CSKA Sofia III.
- Where and when is Natsional Sofia vs CSKA Sofia III played?
- Natsional Sofia vs CSKA Sofia III is played on October 28, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the Third League - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 28, 2026BanskovsSlivnishki geroy
- Oct 28, 2026OborishtevsSeptemvri Sofia II
- Oct 28, 2026Strumska SlavavsLevski Sofia II
- Oct 28, 2026FK Minyor PernikvsKostinbrod
- Oct 28, 2026BelasitsavsChavdar Etropole
- Oct 28, 2026KyustendilvsBotev Ihtiman
- Oct 28, 2026Pirin RazlogvsBalkan Botevgrad
- Oct 28, 2026Septemvri SimitlivsSlavia Sofia II