Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod: prediction and stats
Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Natsional Sofia the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Kostinbrod. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Natsional Sofia (1,463) and Kostinbrod (1,437).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 9 matches in all competitions, Natsional Sofia have 3 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Kostinbrod have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Strumska Slava(home) | 0-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oborishte(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bansko(home) | 2-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FK Minyor Pernik(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Rilski Sportist(home) | 3-4 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Slavia Sofia II(home) | 1-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Botev Ihtiman(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kyustendil(home) | 3-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Septemvri Simitli(away) | 0-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| May 30, 2026 | CSKA Sofia III(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Southwest |
How many goals should we expect?
Natsional Sofia score 3.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 9; Kostinbrod score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natsional Sofia | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2 | 5/9 | 8/9 |
| Kostinbrod | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 9 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Natsional Sofia sit 17th in Third League - Southwest (1 points from 4 matches) and Kostinbrod sit 10th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kostinbrod | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod?
- The Footlab model makes Natsional Sofia the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Kostinbrod.
- Where and when is Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod played?
- Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Third League - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026BanskovsLevski Sofia II
- Oct 17, 2026OborishtevsSlavia Sofia II
- Oct 17, 2026Strumska SlavavsBotev Ihtiman
- Oct 17, 2026FK Minyor PernikvsSeptemvri Sofia II
- Oct 17, 2026BelasitsavsCSKA Sofia III
- Oct 17, 2026Chavdar EtropolevsBalkan Botevgrad
- Oct 17, 2026Pirin RazlogvsSlivnishki geroy
- Oct 17, 2026Septemvri SimitlivsKyustendil