Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod: prediction and stats
Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 12Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Natsional Sofia the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Kostinbrod. The most likely score is 1-1. If Natsional Sofia wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Natsional Sofia (1,396) and Kostinbrod (1,430).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Natsional Sofia
Not enough data to predict the Natsional Sofia lineup.
Kostinbrod
Not enough data to predict the Kostinbrod lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Natsional Sofia have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Kostinbrod have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Slivnishki geroy(away) | 0-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia II(home) | 1-2 | Third League - Southwest |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa(home) | 1-3 | Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Levski Sofia II(away) | 0-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Slavia Sofia II(home) | 2-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Chavdar Etropole(home) | 5-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Oct 3, 2026 | CSKA Sofia III(away) | 0-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Balkan Botevgrad(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Southwest |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Belasitsa(away) | 1-0 | Third League - Southwest |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Slivnishki geroy(away) | 3-0 | Third League - Southwest |
How many goals should we expect?
Natsional Sofia score 2.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Kostinbrod score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natsional Sofia | 2.5 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Kostinbrod | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Natsional Sofia sit 17th in Third League - Southwest (7 points from 11 matches) and Kostinbrod sit 7th (18 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kostinbrod | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 10 | 18 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 20 | 7 |
A question about Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod?
- The Footlab AI model makes Natsional Sofia the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Kostinbrod.
- Where and when is Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod played?
- Natsional Sofia vs Kostinbrod is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Third League - Southwest.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026BanskovsLevski Sofia II
- Oct 17, 2026OborishtevsSlavia Sofia II
- Oct 17, 2026Strumska SlavavsBotev Ihtiman
- Oct 17, 2026FK Minyor PernikvsSeptemvri Sofia II
- Oct 17, 2026BelasitsavsCSKA Sofia III
- Oct 17, 2026Chavdar EtropolevsBalkan Botevgrad
- Oct 17, 2026Pirin RazlogvsSlivnishki geroy
- Oct 17, 2026Septemvri SimitlivsKyustendil