Where and when is Belasitsa vs Natsional Sofia played?

Belasitsa vs Natsional Sofia is played on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Tsar Samuil, in the Third League - Southwest.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Belasitsa vs Natsional Sofia: prediction and stats

Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 16Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Tsar Samuil, Petrich

Belasitsa

Natsional Sofia

The Footlab model makes Belasitsa the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Natsional Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Belasitsa vs Natsional Sofia?

A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Belasitsa (1,483) and Natsional Sofia (1,463).

Belasitsa win51 %

Draw25 %

Natsional Sofia win24 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Belasitsa have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Natsional Sofia have 3, 1 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Belasitsa
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Septemvri Sofia II(home)	2-1	Third League - Southwest
Aug 15, 2026	FK Minyor Pernik(away)	1-1	Third League - Southwest
Aug 8, 2026	Levski Sofia II(home)	4-5	Third League - Southwest
Aug 1, 2026	Pirin Razlog(away)	3-1	Third League - Southwest
Jul 24, 2026	Belasica(home)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs

Natsional Sofia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Strumska Slava(home)	0-3	Third League - Southwest
Aug 15, 2026	Oborishte(away)	1-3	Third League - Southwest
Aug 8, 2026	Bansko(home)	2-2	Third League - Southwest
Aug 1, 2026	FK Minyor Pernik(away)	0-1	Third League - Southwest
Sep 18, 2024	Rilski Sportist(home)	3-4	Cup

How many goals should we expect?

Belasitsa score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Natsional Sofia score 3.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Belasitsa	1.7	1.9	3	10/15	11/15
Natsional Sofia	3.4	2.0	2	5/9	8/9

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Belasitsa sit 5th in Third League - Southwest (7 points from 4 matches) and Natsional Sofia sit 17th (1 points from 4 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Belasitsa	4	2	1	1	10	8	7
17	Natsional Sofia	4	0	1	3	3	9	1

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Belasitsa vs Natsional Sofia?: The Footlab model makes Belasitsa the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Natsional Sofia.
Where and when is Belasitsa vs Natsional Sofia played?: Belasitsa vs Natsional Sofia is played on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Tsar Samuil, in the Third League - Southwest.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.