Machida Zelvia vs Kashima: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 10, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Machida Gion Stadium, Tokyo
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Kashima. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Kashima?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Machida Zelvia (2,116) and Kashima (2,160).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machida Zelvia have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Kashima have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Grulla Morioka(home) | 3-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Suzuka Unlimited(home) | 3-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(home) | 3-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 4-3 | J1 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Vegalta Sendai(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Machida Zelvia win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Kashima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Kashima 1-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Machida Zelvia 0-3 Kashima | J1 League |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 3-0 Kashima | Emperor Cup |
| Jun 21, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 2-1 Kashima | J1 League |
| May 3, 2025 | Kashima 1-0 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Kashima 3-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Kashima vs Machida Zelvia on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Machida Zelvia score 2.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Kashima score 2.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 2.0 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Kashima | 2.0 | 1.0 | 8 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Machida Zelvia sit 1st in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Kashima sit 3rd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Kashima | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Machida Zelvia vs Kashima?
- The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Kashima.
- Where and when is Machida Zelvia vs Kashima played?
- Machida Zelvia vs Kashima is played on March 10, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Machida Gion Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 10, 2027Kashiwa ReysolvsKyoto Sanga
- Mar 10, 2027Sanfrecce HiroshimavsAvispa Fukuoka
- Mar 10, 2027Shimizu S-pulsevsKawasaki Frontale
- Mar 10, 2027UrawavsFC Tokyo
- Mar 10, 2027Nagoya GrampusvsV-varen Nagasaki
- Mar 10, 2027Vissel KobevsGamba Osaka
- Mar 10, 2027JEF United ChibavsTokyo Verdy
- Mar 10, 2027Mito HollyhockvsCerezo Osaka