Where and when is Sestao River vs Gernika played?

Sestao River vs Gernika is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Las Llanas, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Sestao River vs Gernika: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Las Llanas, Sestao

Sestao River

Gernika

The Footlab model makes Sestao River the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Gernika. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sestao River vs Gernika?

A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Sestao River (1,892) and Gernika (1,837).

Sestao River win48 %

Draw28 %

Gernika win25 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sestao River have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Gernika have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sestao River
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 11, 2026	Gimnástica Torrelavega(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Athletic Club II(home)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 22, 2026	Athletic Club(home)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	Utebo(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 26, 2026	Amorebieta(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Gernika
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Deportivo Alavés II(home)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 26, 2026	Basconia(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 18, 2026	Tudelano(home)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 11, 2026	Amorebieta(away)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 4, 2026	Utebo(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sestao River win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Gernika win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 22, 2026	Gernika 0-0 Sestao River	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Dec 14, 2025	Sestao River 2-2 Gernika	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Feb 26, 2023	Sestao River 2-0 Gernika	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Oct 9, 2022	Gernika 1-2 Sestao River	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Aug 13, 2022	Gernika 1-1 Sestao River	Friendlies Clubs
Apr 16, 2022	Sestao River 3-2 Gernika	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Last archived meeting: Gernika vs Sestao River on Feb 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Sestao River score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Gernika score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Sestao River	1.0	1.2	3	9/15	5/15
Gernika	1.0	1.5	5	7/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sestao River vs Gernika?: The Footlab model makes Sestao River the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Gernika.
Where and when is Sestao River vs Gernika played?: Sestao River vs Gernika is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Las Llanas, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.