Sestao River vs Gernika: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Las Llanas, Sestao
The Footlab AI model makes Sestao River the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Gernika. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sestao River wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sestao River vs Gernika?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Sestao River (1,983) and Gernika (1,886).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sestao River vs Gernika
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sestao River
Not enough data to predict the Sestao River lineup.
Gernika
Not enough data to predict the Gernika lineup.
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 02:17 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sestao River have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Gernika have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 3-1 | Copa Federacion |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Gernika(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Terrassa(home) | 4-1 | Copa Federacion |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Amorebieta(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés II(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sestao River(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Coruxo(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Llanera(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sestao River wins, 3 draws, 0 Gernika wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Gernika 1-2 Sestao River | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Gernika 0-0 Sestao River | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Sestao River 2-2 Gernika | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Sestao River 2-0 Gernika | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 9, 2022 | Gernika 1-2 Sestao River | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Aug 13, 2022 | Gernika 1-1 Sestao River | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Gernika vs Sestao River on Oct 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sestao River score 1.4 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Gernika score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sestao River | 1.4 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Gernika | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sestao River sit 4th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (13 points from 6 matches) and Gernika sit 10th (9 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sestao River | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Gernika | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 9 |
A question about Sestao River vs Gernika?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sestao River vs Gernika?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sestao River the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Gernika.
- Where and when is Sestao River vs Gernika played?
- Sestao River vs Gernika is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Las Llanas, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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